Analyze This

There's the old saying about lies, damn lies and statistics -- it could pretty easily be adapted to fit plenty of analyst predictions as well. I saw one fly past my RSS reader today that says location-based services "may finally realize its potential in the Asia/Pacific region in the upcoming five years" (via Mobile Analyst Watch) because there's a lot of consumer interest in them. Of course, consumer interest has never really been the problem, it's all the other stuff the operators have screwed up that's held LBS back.

Let's suspend reality for a moment -- since that's apparently okay, what with the dearth of any compelling LBS, and their continued failure to take off in any meaningful way -- and imagine what else "may" happen over the next five years. I may discover a new career as a professional football player and lead the US to World Cup victory -- twice. We may have phones implanted in our heads, negating the need for handsets and/or Bluetooth headsets. Angelina Jolie may split with Brad Pitt and may decide that she's got a thing for dudes that write about mobile phones and live in Texas. I think you get the idea.

Obviously this stuff comes out of a press release that's intended to do little more than sell copies of the $3,000 report. But the underlying point is that these predictions really don't help anybody. I'm not saying there aren't analysts that do good work, I've known several of them. But these top-down one-way predictions have very little value in an information society that's increasingly based on conversation. Believing that whatever market you're entering is going to be worth a bajillion dollars a year in 2010 isn't going to make your product any better.

Comments

[Daniel Taylor]

Carlo - you're dead-on. Any English major can learn Excel well enough to project the hockey stick market growth that will never happen. But dialogue and conversation - that's exactly it.

When I was an industry analyst (eight years, reformed), the most valuable thing I had to give was the conversation. All I ever wanted to do was to make the dozens of conversations I had on a daily basis available to all my clients. Turning that into a product and making money off it is another thing.

Earlier this week, I did a posting about some analysis that I felt managed to encourage a dialogue. James Governor at RedMonk pointed out that there was no link and that the conversation was "subscription only."

The same holds true for RedMonk -- if you want the good stuff, you have to buy a subscription.

Otherwise, like me, you can read about $3,000 reports and glean their content from press releases. Some conversation!