Oh, So Predictable

I saw the highly speculative post on Engadget titled "Could Nokia dump Symbian?" last night before I went to bed, and knew I'd wake up to plenty more speculative FUD, and I was right. I also knew I'd already found something to write about...

I was going to go through and analyze why I've got a really hard time buying into this at all, but Rafe over at All About Symbian has done a pretty thorough and convincing job of it already. I don't doubt that Nokia is taking a long, hard look at Linux and will use it in some devices, but I also don't doubt the company's not ready to throw away all the resources (cash, time and human) they've put into Symbian and related development.

I should reiterate Rafe's refutations of two of the prime pieces of "evidence" the analyst report that started all this cited: Nokia's licensing of Microsoft ActiveSync in addition to Symbian's licensing it, and the claim that most Series 60 applications are written in Java. Like many of the licensing deals Symbian signs, its licensees must ink separate deals with the original companies (MS in this case) to include the relevant technology on their devices. The Java app claim is disingenuous -- a fair comparison would be the number of Series 60-specific Java applications compared to native Symbian applications.

One interesting point to ponder, though -- how much of Symbian's dominance comes from the Nokia brand on the phones on which it's sold? When somebody picks up a Windows Mobile device, there's little doubt that it's a Windows phone. Symbian/Series 60/UIQ doesn't enjoy that same notoriety -- which keeps the OS brand (admittedly less important) in the background, where it doesn't compete with the device manufacturer's imprint.